Demographic Digest, May 30, 2025
A weekly roundup of the top population news you need to know now
Birth Rates: Bottoming Out or Breaking Down?
A new study out this week is reframing the way we think about replacement fertility. For decades, we’ve used 2.1 children per woman as the benchmark. But researchers now say it may need to be closer to 2.7, accounting for real-world challenges like child mortality, infertility, and people choosing not to have children.
That’s alarming news when you consider where the world stands today—an average of 2.3 globally, and far lower in many wealthy countries.
But there are glimmers of change.
South Korea, which has had the world’s lowest fertility rate for years, reported a 7.4% increase in births in the first quarter of 2025. While the total fertility rate still hovers at a perilously low 0.82, this is the largest Q1 birth gain in over four decades. Government officials credit a delayed post-COVID marriage boom, but warn it’s too soon to call this a trend reversal.
Meanwhile, Italy recorded just 370,000 births in 2024, its lowest count since national unification in 1861. The fertility rate there has dipped to 1.18, underscoring that much of Europe is still deep in demographic decline.
The takeaway? The global baby bust isn’t over. But policymakers may finally be grasping its complexity—and what’s really needed to turn it around.
Aging Populations: Longer Lives, Bigger Strains
The world is getting older, fast. In Italy, nearly one in four people is now over the age of 65. That number is expected to climb in nearly every country—raising urgent questions about pensions, healthcare, and caregiving.
And we’re not ready.
In the United States, 45 states have reported a decline in the number of nursing homes—just as demand for elder care is surging. Over the past decade, the number of nursing home residents has dropped roughly 10%, due to closures, staffing shortages, and a shift to home-based care. This trend could leave families struggling to find support as the senior population grows.
But there’s another side to the aging story.
New research suggests that 70-year-olds today are cognitively and physically healthier than previous generations. In fact, a 70-year-old in 2025 performs similarly to a 53-year-old in 2000. That means more people may be able—and willing—to work longer. And some governments are responding accordingly. Denmark recently moved to raise its retirement age to 70 by 2040, signaling a broader rethinking of how long we live—and work.
Healthy aging presents a real opportunity. But only if we build workplaces, healthcare systems, and policies that match.
Immigration: Balancing Growth and Backlash
Migration continues to be the most immediate and controversial tool to offset shrinking populations.
This past week, the UK reported a dramatic drop in net migration. After hitting a record 860,000 in 2023, the number fell by nearly half in 2024 to 431,000, following new visa restrictions on students and temporary workers. Prime Minister Starmer touted it as a political win, but the economic and demographic effects remain to be seen.
In Germany, the government took a harder turn: suspending family reunification rights for certain migrants and rolling back fast-track citizenship. The moves follow a record 200,000 naturalizations in 2024 and rising pressure to slow immigration. But economists warn that without a fresh influx of skilled workers, Germany could be short 7 million workers by 2035.
Whether through policy or necessity, migration is increasingly the demographic safety valve. But it’s also a political flashpoint—and a test of each nation’s long-term planning.
What It Means
Shrinking Workforces: Fewer births and more retirees mean labor shortages. Expect pressure on businesses to retain older workers, embrace automation, and tap into global talent.
Care Gaps: Aging populations need care, but infrastructure is lagging. The decline of U.S. nursing homes is a warning. Home-based and community care must scale fast.
Cities Must Adapt: As societies age, urban planning needs to prioritize accessibility, housing, and services for older residents, while still attracting younger ones.
Migration = Momentum: Countries embracing immigration are staying competitive. Those closing doors may struggle with growth and innovation.
Bottom Line: Demographic change isn’t abstract. It’s reshaping economies, cities, and lives right now. How we respond will define the next generation.
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